Are provisional overdose counts final?

No. Provisional values can change as death records and cause-of-death information arrive. The newest reporting periods are especially subject to revision.

Can overdose data be linked to a specific shipment or country?

Not from aggregate mortality records. They contain no shared shipment, exporter or incident identifier, so a causal attribution requires separate case-level evidence.

Provisional US Overdose Death Data by State

Q: Where can I find provisional overdose death data by state?

CDC NCHS publishes VSRR provisional overdose death counts through a public dataset. NarcoScope maps the 12-month-ending state and national records while preserving substance class, completeness and predicted-count fields.

What the mortality record measures

PeriodProvisional deaths in rolling 12-month-ending windows, not one-month counts.

GrainJurisdiction + period + substance class; some classes can overlap.

Revision stateReported counts, predicted counts where supplied, completeness and suppression remain distinct.

The public extract covers all-drug deaths plus cocaine, heroin, all opioids, psychostimulants and synthetic opioids. “Psychostimulants” is a cause-of-death code class, not a synonym for methamphetamine. Suppressed cells are omitted, never filled with zero.

Questions the data can—and cannot—answer

Where can I find provisional overdose death data by state?

CDC’s VSRR dataset is the authoritative public source. NarcoScope provides an exploratory map and keeps the publisher link, reporting window, jurisdiction, substance class and provisional status alongside the chart.

Are the newest counts final?

No. Provisional records are revised as death certificates and cause coding arrive. A predicted count is an adjustment supplied in the source, not an observed final total, and it is kept separate from the reported count.

Can mortality be attributed to a shipment, exporter or country?

Not from this aggregate dataset. It has no shared incident, shipment or exporter identifier with precursor or seizure records. Showing two trends together does not create the missing causal join.

Public-health boundary: these are aggregate mortality statistics, not medical advice or a real-time surveillance feed. For an emergency in the United States, call emergency services; for treatment information, use an appropriate official health service.

Use the record responsibly

State that the count is provisional and name the 12-month-ending period.
Do not add overlapping substance categories to create a total.
Distinguish reported counts from predicted counts and show missing predictions.
Do not infer the source of a substance or causal supply chain from mortality data alone.

US Overdose Map Triangulation view CDC public API

Provisional US overdose death data by state